Once Caldas v Envigado

Once Caldas meet Envigado in the Copa Colombia play-offs at Estadio Palogrande, Manizales. The model makes Once Caldas the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% ONC, 31% draw, 35% ENV.

The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 65%. Attacking output favors Once Caldas on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Once Caldas at 50%; double chance reads Once Caldas or draw 65%, Envigado or draw 65%.

Once Caldas arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Envigado, D 2-2 @ Junior, L 0-1 v Junior, W 1-0 v Atletico Nacional.

Envigado are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Once Caldas, D 1-1 v Real Cartagena, W 3-2 @ Real Cartagena, W 1-0 v Quindio.

Once Caldas hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Once Caldas 3-0 Envigado.

The market prices ONC at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Envigado: a 16.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.