Touring edged past Leioa in extra time of the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 semi-final, winning 3-2 in a match that the Lemeister model had seen as a finely balanced contest, with the visitors given a 36 per cent chance of victory. The result was decided by a tight margin across 120 minutes, with both sides trading blows after a first half that offered little in terms of clear statistical dominance. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-2 away win, a forecast that proved accurate on outcome and close on the scoreline, with the actual total of five goals exceeding its projection of three.
M. Llorente opened the scoring for Touring in the 19th minute, the only goal of the first half. That period reflected a contest in which neither side was able to generate sustained pressure or create a decisive advantage in the statistics, though the absence of detailed match data such as possession, shots, expected goals or passing numbers limits the depth of that analysis. Leioa responded after the interval, with A. B. Rementeria equalising in the 62nd minute. The goal brought the home side level and set the stage for a tense finish in regular time, which ended with no further scoring. The game then moved into extra time, where the scoring intensified. U. Sevillano put Touring back ahead in the 95th minute, only for A. Blanco to level for Leioa two minutes later in the 97th. The decisive moment came in the 116th minute, when O. Dorronsoro scored to secure the win for the away side, making it three separate leads for Touring across the match.
Although the data provided does not include overall match statistics such as possession, shots, expected goals or passing numbers, the pattern of the contest suggests a game that was evenly matched for long periods, with neither team capable of building a commanding lead before the extra-time flurry. Leioa twice came from behind, showing resilience in responding within minutes of falling behind in extra time, but Touring’s ability to regain the lead on two separate occasions proved decisive. The timing of the goals, with both extra-time strikes from the visitors coming in the first 15 minutes of the additional period, gave Leioa little time to reset before the second blow.
No cards were issued in the match, which suggests the contest was disciplined despite the high stakes and extended duration. With no substitutions recorded, both sides relied on their starting line-ups through the full 120 minutes, an indication of the physical demands placed on the players and the limited depth each team could call upon from the bench. That lack of rotation may have contributed to the open nature of extra time, as fatigue affected defensive organisation and allowed the flurry of goals. The five goals scored, all in the second half or later, point to a game that built in intensity and attacking output as it progressed, with the first half ending goalless apart from Llorente’s early strike.
For Touring, the victory advances them to the final of the Tercera División RFEF Group 4, while Leioa are left to reflect on a campaign that ended just short of the deciding match. The semi-final, tightly contested and settled in extra time, provided a fitting conclusion to a tie that the models had predicted as too close to call with certainty. The win for Touring, at 36 per cent pre-match probability by the Lemeister model, represents a result that was plausible but far from assured, earned through the late impact of their scorers.Llorente, Sevillano and Dorronsoro each contributed a goal, while Leioa’s equalisers from Rementeria and Blanco kept them in the contest until the final minutes. The absence of detailed statistical data means the analysis rests heavily on the goal timeline, but the narrow margin and late drama confirm a match decided by fine margins and individual moments of quality in front of goal.
