Ceuta II and Dos Hermanas played out a 2-2 draw in the Tercera División RFEF Group 10 semi-final, a result that left the tie finely balanced. The match was decided by the statistical balance of chances, with neither side able to gain a decisive advantage despite both teams scoring twice in a first half that featured three of the four goals. The Lemeister model had forecasted a likely away victory, giving Dos Hermanas a 46 per cent win probability, compared to 25 per cent for Ceuta II and a 29 per cent chance of a draw. The model's projected scoreline was 0-2 in favour of the visitors, meaning the actual draw was a better result for the home side than anticipated.
The scoring began in the 20th minute when Ceuta II took the lead through G. Guzman, who converted a normal goal without an assist. The home side's advantage lasted only ten minutes, as Dos Hermanas equalised in the 30th minute through J. Salibe, also from a normal goal with no assist. The visitors then seized control before half-time, with M. Reina scoring in the 37th minute to put Dos Hermanas 2-1 ahead. Ceuta II responded after the interval, with J. Gamez finding the net in the 65th minute to restore parity, again a normal goal with no assist. The sequence of goals shows that both teams were capable of scoring within short periods, with Dos Hermanas particularly effective in turning the match around before the break.
With no statistics or ratings provided in the data, the analysis must rely on the goal sequence and the pre-match model. The lack of any cards or substitutions suggests a disciplined contest rather than a fractious one, with both teams maintaining their starting line-ups throughout the 90 minutes. The two goals each indicate that defensive organisation was not the decisive factor; rather, the match was characterised by clinical finishing from both attacks. Ceuta II's ability to come from behind twice shows resilience, while Dos Hermanas will be frustrated at not holding their lead after half-time, especially given their pre-match favouritism.
For the semi-final tie, a draw leaves the aggregate score level at 2-2, likely setting up a second leg or potentially extra time depending on the format. Dos Hermanas entered the match as favourites according to the Lemeister model, which gave them a 46 per cent win probability, and they will feel they had the stronger performance based on that projection. However, Ceuta II's equaliser ensures the tie remains finely balanced, and the home side will draw confidence from their comeback against a team that was expected to dominate. The model's projection of a 0-2 away win was proven incorrect by the actual end-to-end nature of the match, in which both teams created opportunities to score.
The result keeps both sides in contention, with the second leg or decisive period to come. Ceuta II will draw confidence from their comeback, having equalised twice, including once after the interval. Dos Hermanas must address their inability to protect a lead, having taken the lead in the 37th minute only to concede in the 65th. The match provided four goals and frequent momentum shifts, setting up an intriguing conclusion to the semi-final, where neither team has a significant advantage based on the first leg. The Lemeister model's pre-match read of a 0-2 away win was not reflected in the outcome, underscoring the unpredictability of knockout football in Tercera División RFEF Group 10.
