Izarra secured a commanding 4-0 victory over Subiza in the Tercera División RFEF Group 15 semi-final first leg, a result that was far more emphatic than the Lemeister model's pre-match forecast. The model had given Izarra a 39 per cent chance of winning, with the draw at 31 per cent and a Subiza victory at 30 per cent, projecting a narrow 1-0 home win. The actual scoreline, built on a blistering start and a ruthless first-half display, rendered the contest effectively over inside the opening half-hour.
The match was decided by an extraordinary burst of four goals in the first 29 minutes. J. Hoyos opened the scoring after just one minute, giving Izarra an immediate advantage that set the tone for the entire half. M. Diaz Montes doubled the lead in the 17th minute, and the deficit grew further when J. Madariaga made it three in the 22nd minute. Oli completed the scoring in the 29th minute, ending any prospect of a Subiza comeback before the interval. The rapid succession of goals points to a period of sustained pressure from the home side, with Subiza's defence unable to recover from the early setback.
The available data does not include detailed match statistics such as possession, shots or expected goals, but the goal timeline and the absence of cards or substitutions offer important context. Izarra's four goals came from four different scorers, indicating a broad attacking threat rather than reliance on a single individual. The lack of any yellow or red cards suggests a disciplined performance from Izarra, who did not need to resort to fouls to maintain control. Subiza, by contrast, recorded no changes to their starting lineup and no bookings, pointing to a lack of tactical response or disruptive moments that could have altered the flow.
With no individual player ratings available in the data, the goalscorers naturally stand as the most notable contributors. Hoyos, Diaz Montes, Madariaga and Oli each delivered a decisive moment, and the clean sheet implies solid work from the defence and goalkeeper, though their names are not listed. The absence of stats means analysis must focus on the pattern of play: Izarra's ability to score four times in the opening half-hour speaks to clinical finishing and effective attacking organisation, while Subiza's failure to register a goal or force a card suggests they struggled to create clear chances or apply sustained pressure.
This result gives Izarra an overwhelming advantage heading into the second leg. A four-goal lead, combined with a clean sheet, places them in a position of near-total control. Subiza will need an extraordinary turnaround to keep the tie alive, requiring at least four goals and a shutout to force extra time. For Izarra, the speed of their start and the defensive solidity will be the most encouraging takeaways as they aim to progress to the final. While the Lemeister model had predicted a much tighter contest, the actual outcome underscores how a strong start can decisively shape a semi-final encounter.
