Where the market is wrong on Antigua and Barbuda U20 v Guatemala U20
Antigua and Barbuda U20 meet Guatemala U20 in the CONCACAF U20 concacaf championship u20 - 2. The model makes Guatemala U20 the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 30% ANT, 30% draw, 41% GUA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1514 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 50%. Attacking output favors Guatemala U20 on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Guatemala U20 at 58%; double chance reads Antigua and Barbuda U20 or draw 59%, Guatemala U20 or draw 70%.
Antigua and Barbuda U20 arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Mexico U20, W 1-0 @ Dominican Republic U20, W 1-0 @ Dominica U20, W 2-0 v British VI U20.
Guatemala U20 are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 1 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Costa Rica U20, D 1-1 @ El Salvador U20, D 0-0 @ El Salvador U20, D 0-0 @ Peru U18.
The market prices ANT at 13% implied. Our number sits apart on Antigua and Barbuda U20: a 17.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
