Zamalek SC won the CAF Confederation Cup final 1-0 against USM Alger in Cairo, a result dictated by a single early penalty and a resolute defensive display that absorbed sustained pressure. The Lemeister model had narrowly favoured Zamalek with a 38% win probability, and the outcome aligned closely with its projected scoreline of 1-0.
The decisive moment arrived in the fifth minute. O. Dabbagh converted a penalty to give Zamalek the lead, a goal that proved sufficient despite the team generating only three total shots across the match. No assist was recorded, and the penalty was the only shot on target from open play that the home side managed. Zamalek's strategy was clear from that point: protect the lead and rely on defensive organisation.
The data shows a stark contrast in territorial control. USM Alger dominated possession with 64% and completed 473 passes at an 81% accuracy rate, compared to Zamalek's 264 passes at 69%. Despite this control, the visitors struggled to turn possession into clear chances. They managed nine total shots but only one on target, which was saved by the goalkeeper. Their seven shots off goal and one blocked shot indicated a lack of precision from promising positions, including five shots from inside the box. Zamalek, by contrast, took all three of their shots from inside the box, with two on target and one off target, showing efficiency in the limited opportunities they created. The expected goals data, while not provided, would likely reflect the low-quality chances USM Alger generated despite their volume of shots, as their single shot on target from nine attempts suggests poor finishing or well-organised defending.
The home defence, marshalled effectively, limited the visitors to a single effort requiring a save from the goalkeeper. Zamalek made five substitutions while USM Alger made three, a reflection of the home side's need to manage fitness and time in a tight contest. The physical battle was evenly matched, with 13 fouls for Zamalek and 14 for USM Alger, and both sides received one yellow card each. Hocine Dehiri of USM Alger was booked in the 51st minute, and Abdallah El-Said of Zamalek received a yellow in the 65th minute. The corner kick count also highlighted the visitors' dominance in possession without finding the final ball: USM Alger had no corners, while Zamalek had one, an unusual statistic for a side with 64% possession.
Among the named players, Abdallah El-Said earned the highest rating at 7.5, reflecting his influence in midfield despite the booking. Mohamed Ismail and Adam Kaied both scored 7.3, with Mohamed Ibrahim and Oday Dabbagh each on 7.2. For USM Alger, Hocine Dehiri registered a 7.2 rating, the only visiting player named in the ratings list, indicating a solid individual performance in a losing cause. The absence of USM Alger players among the top-rated names suggests that despite their territorial dominance, no individual could turn possession into a game-changing moment.
The result secures the CAF Confederation Cup for Zamalek SC, a trophy that adds to their continental pedigree. For USM Alger, the defeat in the final represents a missed opportunity to claim silverware despite controlling large phases of the game. The offside count of six for Zamalek to one for USM Alger indicates that the home side attempted to push forward on the counter-attack but were often caught in advanced positions, a risk they were willing to take to preserve their narrow lead. The match was a classic example of a final decided by an early set-piece and a team that managed the game efficiently, leaving the dominant side to rue their lack of cutting edge despite overwhelming possession.
