XV de Jau v Marília: the model read
XV de Jau meet Marília in the Paulista - A3 semi-finals. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 32% XV , 36% draw, 32% MAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 65%. Attacking output favors Marília on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 23%, over 2.5 goals around 14%. Draw no bet leans Marília at 50%; double chance reads XV de Jau or draw 68%, Marília or draw 68%.
XV de Jau arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Marília, D 0-0 v Marília, W 2-0 v Rio Claro, W 1-0 @ Rio Claro.
Marília are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Linense, W 1-0 v Grêmio Prudente, L 0-2 @ Portuguesa Santista, D 2-2 v Portuguesa Santista.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Marília 2-2 XV de Jau.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
