Burundi v Chad: the model read
Burundi meet Chad in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification preliminary round at Intwari Stadium, Bujumbura. The model makes Burundi the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% BUR, 33% draw, 25% CHA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Burundi, 29% against 18%. Attacking output favors Burundi on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Burundi at 62%; double chance reads Burundi or draw 75%, Chad or draw 59%.
Burundi arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ Morocco, W 4-0 v Chad, W 4-0 @ Chad, L 0-2 @ Gabon.
Chad are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Burundi, L 0-4 v Burundi, D 2-2 v Mozambique, L 1-2 @ Uganda.
Burundi hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Burundi 4-0 Chad.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output