Mauritius v Somalia: the model read
Mauritius meet Somalia in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification preliminary round. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 31% MAU, 40% draw, 29% SOM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 25% against 25%. Attacking output favors Somalia on expected goals, 0.4 to 0.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 11%, over 2.5 goals around 5%. Draw no bet leans Mauritius at 52%; double chance reads Mauritius or draw 71%, Somalia or draw 69%.
Mauritius arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 1 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Somalia, D 0-0 @ Somalia, D 0-0 v Libya, L 0-2 v Cameroon.
Somalia are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 3 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Mauritius, D 0-0 v Mauritius, D 0-0 @ Oman, W 1-0 @ Bahrain.
Their last 2 meetings are tight — 2 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Mauritius 0-0 Somalia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
