Pafos v AEL: the model read
Pafos meet AEL in the Cup semi-finals at Stelios Kyriakides Stadium, Pafos. The model makes Pafos the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% PAF, 30% draw, 29% AEL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Pafos, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Pafos on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Pafos at 59%; double chance reads Pafos or draw 71%, AEL or draw 59%.
Pafos arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ HNK Hajduk Split, L 2-3 @ Slovan Bratislava, L 0-1 @ Jagiellonia, D 0-0 @ FK Jablonec.
AEL are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Akritas, L 1-3 v Olympiakos, D 1-1 @ Krasava Ypsonas, L 0-1 v Anorthosis.
Pafos hold the recent head-to-head, 10 wins to 0 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Pafos 3-1 AEL.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
