Palmeiras advanced to the next round of the Copa do Brasil with a commanding 4-1 victory away at Jacuipense, a result that the Lemeister model had foreseen as probable, giving the visitors a 54 per cent win probability before kick-off. The scoreline was decided in a devastating 14-minute spell bridging the first half, during which Palmeiras scored three times to take complete control. The visitors' dominance was absolute across nearly every measurable category, leaving little doubt about the gulf in quality between the sides. The Lemeister model's projection of a two-goal away win proved conservative, with Palmeiras surpassing expectations through sheer volume of chances.
The match was effectively over within the opening 37 minutes. Mauricio opened the scoring in the 23rd minute, finishing a move initiated by Felipe Anderson. Just one minute later, the pattern continued: Felipe Anderson turned from provider to scorer, netting after a pass from Lucas Evangelista. The speed of those two goals, scored 60 seconds apart, left Jacuipense reeling. Erick Bele made it 3-0 in the 37th minute, again with Felipe Anderson providing the assist, completing a first-half demolition that saw Palmeiras register 12 shots before the interval. The home side's discipline immediately showed signs of strain, with Daniel Costa receiving a yellow card in the 29th minute, a foul that reflected Jacuipense's difficulty in containing the visitors' movement.
Jacuipense's task became insurmountable eight minutes into the second half. Luighi converted a penalty in the 53rd minute to extend the lead to four goals. The home side's frustration continued to manifest in ill-discipline, with Gabriel Pereira receiving a yellow card in the 55th minute. Palmeiras were content to manage the game thereafter, but the intensity did not entirely drop. Though the home side did get a consolation when Vicente scored a normal goal in the 88th minute, it was merely a statistical footnote against the broader imbalance.
The statistical chasm between the teams is best illustrated by the expected numbers. Palmeiras generated 25 total shots against Jacuipense's three, and nine of those were on target compared to just one for the hosts. The visitors' control was built on 67 per cent possession and 590 passes at a 90 per cent completion rate, while Jacuipense managed only 282 passes at 84 per cent accuracy. Palmeiras also won the corner count 7-2, though their advantage was so comprehensive that set-piece dominance was almost superfluous. The shot breakdown further emphasises the visitors' superiority: 15 of their attempts came from inside the box, reflecting sustained penetration, while only two of Jacuipense's total efforts originated from a similar area.
Felipe Anderson was the clear standout, earning a match rating of 9.6 after a goal and two assists that directly shaped the victory. Mauricio scored the opener and finished with an 8.2 rating, while Lucas Evangelista and Erick Bele both recorded 7.6. Emiliano Martínez was a 7.5 and Luis Benedetti a 7.3, reflecting the solidity throughout the Palmeiras lineup. The home side's goalkeeper made five saves to keep the scoreline from being even more lopsided, but Palmeiras' attacking efficiency was such that their chance creation rendered any resistance largely symbolic.
The result moves Palmeiras into the Round of 16, where they will be among the favourites to progress further given the depth and quality on display here. Jacuipense, having been outclassed from start to finish, exit the competition having struggled to impose themselves in any phase. The margin of victory, combined with the visitors' complete statistical dominance, suggests that Palmeiras will approach the next round with considerable confidence in their ability to control matches against lower-division opposition.
