Where the market is wrong on Cherepovets v Iskra Smolensk
Cherepovets meet Iskra Smolensk in the Second League - Group 2 group 2 - 16. The model makes Cherepovets the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% CHE, 27% draw, 23% ISK.
Cherepovets rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1569 to 1400. Recent form leans Cherepovets, 57% against 25%. Attacking output favors Cherepovets on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 70%. Draw no bet leans Cherepovets at 69%; double chance reads Cherepovets or draw 77%, Iskra Smolensk or draw 49%.
Cherepovets arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Iskra Smolensk, L 0-3 @ Luki-Energiya, L 0-2 v Zvezda St. Petersburg, L 0-1 @ Torpedo Vladimir.
Iskra Smolensk are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Cherepovets, L 2-4 v Tver, L 0-6 @ Murom, D 1-1 v Luki-Energiya.
The market prices CHE at 66% implied. Our number sits apart on Iskra Smolensk: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
