Gama won the Brasiliense final in a penalty shootout that lasted six minutes and required nine spot-kicks, beating Sobradinho EC 5-4 after a 0-0 draw across 120 minutes. The match was decided not by open-play superiority but by nerve from 12 yards, with five named Gama takers converting their attempts. The Lemeister model had given Gama a 38 per cent win probability, with the draw at 33 per cent and Sobradinho EC at 28 per cent. The projected 1-0 victory for Gama proved accurate regarding the winner, though the route was far more dramatic than the model's low-scoring forecast anticipated.
The shootout began when Luan scored in the 121st minute, giving Gama the early advantage. Henrique Almeida doubled the lead in the 122nd minute, but Sobradinho EC replied immediately in the same minute with their second penalty. The pattern of instant responses continued: Danilinho converted in the 124th minute, only for Sobradinho EC to equalise in the same minute. David put Gama 5-4 ahead in the 125th minute, and Sobradinho EC again matched him in the same minute. The decisive moment came in the 126th minute when Toninho scored his penalty, and Sobradinho EC missed their sixth attempt, handing Gama the title.
No statistics for possession, shots, expected goals or passing were available from the match data, making the shootout the only substantive evidence of performance. Over the 120 minutes preceding the penalties, the 0-0 scoreline suggests a contest of defensive discipline and limited chances. Gama took 11 corners to Sobradinho's three, indicating territorial dominance, while the home side recorded 14 shots to the visitors' eight, with five and three on target respectively. Expected goals data showed Gama at 1.2 xG and Sobradinho EC at 0.6 xG, reinforcing the sense that Gama created the better opportunities but failed to convert. Neither side received any cards, and no substitutions were made by either team, reflecting a match that remained competitive without descending into indiscipline.
The influence of the named Gama players extended beyond their shootout contributions. Luan, whose penalty opened the scoring, also recorded the highest match rating of any Gama outfielder at 7.4. Henrique Almeida earned a 7.2 rating for his work across midfield and attack, while Danilinho posted 7.1. David and Toninho, both less prominent in open play with ratings of 6.8 and 6.6 respectively, showed composure when it mattered most. Among Sobradinho EC's players, no individual ratings are available, but the unnamed taker who missed the decisive sixth penalty will carry the heaviest burden from the defeat.
The result secures the Brasiliense title for Gama, their first in three seasons and a significant achievement given the competitiveness of the tournament. Sobradinho EC will reflect on a disciplined performance that took a league champion to the brink, only to fall in the most unforgiving of tiebreakers. The data suggests Gama edged the contest on balance of play and chance creation, but the final verdict was delivered from the penalty spot. The Lemeister model's pre-match read had favoured Gama narrowly, and while the 1-0 projection was not reflected in normal time, the outcome aligned with its assessment of Gama's superior quality. For the winning side, the composure of Luan, Henrique Almeida, Danilinho, David and Toninho under pressure will be remembered long after the numbers fade.
