Dinamo Tirana secured a 1-0 victory over Vllaznia Shkodër in the Cup semi-final at the Loro Borici Stadium, a result that closely matched the pre-match expectation. The Lemeister model gave the visitors a 48% win probability and projected a 2-0 away victory, and Dinamo delivered a tighter version of that forecast. The single goal was the difference, but the underlying numbers suggest a contest where efficiency in front of goal and discipline were decisive.
The only goal arrived in the 76th minute, scored by D. Bregu for Dinamo Tirana. It was a normal goal with no assist recorded, meaning no specific provider was deemed responsible for the chance. The timing was critical, coming at a stage where Vllaznia Shkodër had defended resolutely for much of the second half. Neither side added to the scoreline in the remaining 14 minutes plus stoppage time, leaving Dinamo to hold on for a narrow but professional away win.
Discipline played a notable role in shaping the match. T. Nani of Dinamo Tirana received a yellow card in the 25th minute, a caution that may have constrained his midfield work. Vllaznia Shkodër’s A. Krymi was booked in the 37th minute, reflecting the home side's need to break up Dinamo's rhythm. Another yellow card was shown to an unnamed Dinamo player in the 75th minute, just a minute before the winning goal, indicating rising tension as the game approached its decisive moment. None of these cautions escalated further, but they signalled the physical contest.
Both teams made heavy use of their benches, with Vllaznia Shkodër deploying four substitutes and Dinamo Tirana using five. The number of changes suggests that both managers were actively trying to alter the flow of the game, particularly in the second half. Dinamo's substitutions ultimately proved more influential, helping them sustain pressure and secure the breakthrough. The lack of detailed possession, shots, and expected goals statistics in the data means the analysis must lean on the goal timeline and disciplinary patterns, but the pattern of a single clinical finish and disciplined defending is clear.
D. Bregu was the standout performer, as his goal was the only moment of finishing precision in the entire match. His contribution shifted the tie firmly in Dinamo's favour and made him the decisive figure. T. Nani's influence was reduced by his early booking, but his role in midfield likely remained important for balance and control. A. Krymi's yellow card highlighted his involvement in Vllaznia's defensive efforts, though he could not prevent the vital goal.
For Vllaznia Shkodër, the defeat ends their hopes of reaching the cup final. They will reflect on a game where they contained a favoured Dinamo side for long periods but could not prevent the one decisive strike. Dinamo Tirana progress to the final with a narrow but professional away victory, fulfilling the Lemeister model's prediction that they were the favourites. The result maintains their momentum in the competition, while Vllaznia Shkodër must now turn their attention to their remaining league fixtures, carrying the frustration of a semi-final exit.
