Where the market is wrong on Valmiera / BSS v Mārupe
Valmiera / BSS meet Mārupe in the 1. Liga regular season - 17.
Valmiera / BSS rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1765 to 1512. Recent form leans Valmiera / BSS, 85% against 48%. Attacking output favors Valmiera / BSS on expected goals, 2.8 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 88%. Draw no bet leans Valmiera / BSS at 74%; double chance reads Valmiera / BSS or draw 80%, Mārupe or draw 44%.
Valmiera / BSS arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Mārupe, W 4-1 @ Smiltene, W 2-1 v Rīgas FS II, W 3-0 v Riga FC II.
Mārupe are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Valmiera / BSS, W 2-1 v Super Nova 2, L 0-1 v Leevon / PPK, L 2-4 @ Skanste.
Valmiera / BSS hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Valmiera / BSS 4-1 Mārupe.
The market prices VAL at 78% implied. Our number sits apart on Mārupe: a 11.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
