France France v Italy: the model read
France meet Italy in the UEFA Nations League 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1719 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 78% against 73%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 2.5 to 2.1 per match.
France arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 4-6 v England, L 0-2 v Spain, W 2-0 v Morocco, W 1-0 @ Paraguay.
Italy are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Greece, W 1-0 @ Luxembourg, D 1-1 @ Bosnia & Herzegovina, W 2-0 v Northern Ireland.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Italy 1-3 France.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
