Adelaide Comets v FK Beograd

Adelaide Comets meet FK Beograd in the South Australia NPL regular season - 19 at Ellis Park, undefined. The model makes FK Beograd the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 25% ADE, 28% draw, 46% FK .

FK Beograd rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1535 to 1400. Recent form leans FK Beograd, 53% against 33%. Attacking output favors FK Beograd on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 53%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans FK Beograd at 65%; double chance reads Adelaide Comets or draw 54%, FK Beograd or draw 75%.

Adelaide Comets arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v FK Beograd, L 0-1 @ Campbelltown City, L 1-4 v Croydon Kings, L 0-1 v Adelaide City.

FK Beograd are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Adelaide Comets, L 0-2 v Adelaide United II, L 2-3 v North Sunshine Eagles, W 1-0 v West Adelaide.

The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Adelaide Comets 1-0 FK Beograd.

The market prices ADE at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.