Ituano v Barra: the model read
Ituano meet Barra in the Serie C regular season - 16. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 34% ITU, 35% draw, 32% BAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ituano, 48% against 35%. Attacking output favors Ituano on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 28%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Ituano at 52%; double chance reads Ituano or draw 68%, Barra or draw 66%.
Ituano arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 1 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Brusque, L 1-3 v Ferroviária, L 0-1 @ Santa Cruz, D 0-0 v Maranhão.
Barra are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Ypiranga-RS, L 1-2 v Santa Cruz, W 2-1 @ Confiança, L 1-2 @ Floresta.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
