CRB defeated ASA 3-0 in the Alagoano final, a result that the Lemeister model had seen as relatively unlikely. The model entered the match with ASA as 42 per cent favourites to win, giving CRB only a 27 per cent chance of victory, but CRB produced a thoroughly convincing performance built on a two-goal burst in the second half. The clean sheet and three-goal margin suggest a gulf on the night that the pre-match probabilities did not capture, with CRB superior in all decisive phases.
Mikael opened the scoring in the 28th minute with a normal goal, giving CRB a lead they would not relinquish. The home side then doubled their advantage just before the hour mark when Douglas Baggio scored in the 59th minute, also from open play. Mikael completed his brace seven minutes later, scoring again in the 66th minute to put the result beyond doubt. All three strikes were normal goals with no assists recorded in the data, but the timing was critical; the second and third goals arrived in a seven-minute spell that deflated ASA. The period between the 52nd and 66th minutes, which included Cristian Lucca’s yellow card and both second-half goals, was when the match was won.
ASA’s task became harder when Cristian Lucca was booked in the 52nd minute, just before the decisive period of the match. That caution, his team already trailing by one, limited his defensive aggression and may have contributed to the quick concession of the second goal. The visitors ultimately failed to register any meaningful response; without shot or expected goals data available, the scoreline and the lack of a goal conceded by CRB strongly indicate that ASA did not create high-quality chances. Dada Belmonte was also cautioned for CRB in the fifth minute of stoppage time, a minor blemish on an otherwise disciplined defensive display that preserved the clean sheet. The home side made five substitutions to ASA’s four, suggesting no major injury disruption but reflecting the different phase of the match each team faced.
Without specific statistics available in the data, the narrative of the match is defined by the goals and the disciplinary record. The 3-0 scoreline points to a dominant performance from CRB, who controlled the key moments. ASA, despite being the pre-match model favourite, were unable to impose themselves and paid the price for conceding three times in a 40-minute period. The clean sheet for the CRB defence and the two-goal contribution from Mikael were the decisive factors in a match that followed a clear pattern: CRB struck early, struck again after the interval, and never allowed their opponents back into the contest. Mikael, with a brace, was the standout performer; his two normal goals in the 28th and 66th minutes provided the platform for victory. Douglas Baggio contributed the second goal, while Dada Belmonte’s late booking was the only card for the winners.
The result gives CRB the Alagoano title with a comprehensive victory in the final. For ASA, the defeat is a significant disappointment given their status as the model’s favoured side. The failure to score, coupled with the concession of three goals, leaves a clear gap between expectation and execution. CRB’s clinical finishing, disciplined defending, and ability to score in clusters proved decisive, while ASA will reflect on a match where they were outscored without reply. The outcome underlines the unpredictability of knockout finals, where the Lemeister model identified ASA as likelier winners but CRB produced the result that mattered most.
