Brisbane Roar II v Moreton City Excelsior

Brisbane Roar II meet Moreton City Excelsior in the Queensland NPL regular season - 20. The model makes Moreton City Excelsior the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 23% BRI, 24% draw, 53% MOR.

Moreton City Excelsior rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1400. Recent form leans Moreton City Excelsior, 63% against 23%. Attacking output favors Moreton City Excelsior on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 74%, over 2.5 goals around 90%. Draw no bet leans Moreton City Excelsior at 70%; double chance reads Brisbane Roar II or draw 47%, Moreton City Excelsior or draw 77%.

Brisbane Roar II arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Olympic, W 4-1 v Rochedale Rovers, D 1-1 @ Brisbane City, L 1-3 @ Peninsula Power.

Moreton City Excelsior are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Peninsula Power, W 4-3 v Magic United, L 1-2 @ Gold Coast Knights, W 1-0 @ Gold Coast United.

Moreton City Excelsior hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Moreton City Excelsior 6-0 Brisbane Roar II.

The market prices BRI at 15% implied. Our number sits apart on Brisbane Roar II: a 8.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.