Rochedale Rovers v Eastern Suburbs

Rochedale Rovers meet Eastern Suburbs in the Queensland NPL regular season - 20. The model makes Eastern Suburbs the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 28% ROC, 26% draw, 45% EAS.

The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Eastern Suburbs, 48% against 28%. Attacking output favors Eastern Suburbs on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Eastern Suburbs at 62%; double chance reads Rochedale Rovers or draw 55%, Eastern Suburbs or draw 72%.

Rochedale Rovers arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Brisbane City, L 1-2 v SD Raiders, L 1-4 @ Brisbane Roar II, D 1-1 @ WDSC Wolves.

Eastern Suburbs are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 4 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Magic United, L 0-1 @ Lions, L 1-3 v Peninsula Power, L 1-2 v Olympic.

Eastern Suburbs hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 3 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Eastern Suburbs 6-1 Rochedale Rovers.

The market prices ROC at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.