Shandong Luneng v Henan Jianye

Shandong Luneng meet Henan Jianye in the Super League regular season - 20 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center, Jinan. The model makes Shandong Luneng the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% SHA, 29% draw, 35% HEN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1492, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 47%. Attacking output favors Shandong Luneng on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Shandong Luneng at 50%; double chance reads Shandong Luneng or draw 65%, Henan Jianye or draw 65%.

Shandong Luneng arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Henan Jianye, D 2-2 @ Wuhan Three Towns, L 1-3 @ Dalian Zhixing, W 4-3 v Yunnan Yukun.

Henan Jianye are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Shandong Luneng, D 1-1 v Dalian Zhixing, W 5-1 v Qingdao Jonoon, L 1-2 @ Yunnan Yukun.

Shandong Luneng hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.

The market prices SHA at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Henan Jianye: a 5.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.