Fortaleza EC v Botafogo SP

Fortaleza EC meet Botafogo SP in the Serie B regular season - 20. The model makes Fortaleza EC the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% FOR, 33% draw, 32% BOT.

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 45%. Attacking output favors Fortaleza EC on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Fortaleza EC at 53%; double chance reads Fortaleza EC or draw 68%, Botafogo SP or draw 65%.

Fortaleza EC arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Vila Nova, W 1-0 v Novorizontino, L 0-1 @ Atletico Goianiense, W 2-0 v Ponte Preta.

Botafogo SP are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v Juventude, D 0-0 @ Londrina, D 3-3 @ Sport Recife, W 3-1 v Avai.

Botafogo SP hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Botafogo SP 4-0 Fortaleza EC.

The market prices FOR at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Botafogo SP: a 11.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.