AZ Alkmaar reached the KNVB Beker final with a 2-1 victory over Telstar, though the scoreline does not fully capture a match that was defined by the data as much as by the two early second-half goals. Possession was perfectly split at 50 per cent each, but the home side managed 11 total shots to Telstar’s seven, and created eight attempts from inside the box against four from the visitors. Expected goals are not available, but the shot location data suggests AZ generated the clearer chances. The Lemeister model had given AZ a 40 per cent chance of winning, with both teams closely matched, and the projected score of 2-1 proved exact.
The opening goal came two minutes into the second half. D. Bakker put the ball into his own net in the 47th minute to give AZ the lead. The second goal followed four minutes later, again an own goal, this time from N. Ogidi Nwankwo in the 51st minute. Telstar pulled one back through K. Tejan in the 74th minute, but could not find an equaliser. With only one shot on target each across the match, and the home goalkeeper making no saves, the Telstar goal was the only time either side forced a save. The match was ultimately decided by two unfortunate defensive moments rather than sustained attacking pressure.
AZ’s 11 total shots were offset by the fact that only one hit the target, while five went off target and six were blocked. The blocked shots figure – six for the home side, one for the visitors – indicates AZ often found shooting lanes closed by Telstar’s defence. Telstar had seven total shots, with five off target and one blocked, and their one shot on target produced the goal. The home goalkeeper made no saves, while the Telstar goalkeeper made one. Corner kicks were close at 4-3 in AZ’s favour.
The highest match rating belonged to AZ’s Ro-Zangelo Daal at 8.2, reflecting a strong individual performance. Telstar’s Kay Tejan, who scored his side’s goal, was rated 7.7. AZ defender Alexandre Penetra earned a 7.2, while Telstar’s Cedric Hatenboer, Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp, and Tyrone Owusu all received 7.0 ratings. The yellow cards were issued to AZ’s Elijah Dijkstra in the 29th minute and Kees Smit in the 57th, with Telstar’s Patrick Brouwer booked in the 91st minute.
Passing accuracy was moderate for both sides: AZ completed 280 of 376 passes (74 per cent), while Telstar completed 272 of 382 (71 per cent). The away side attempted marginally more passes but at a slightly lower completion rate. Fouls were 8-10 in Telstar’s favour, and AZ did not commit an offside while Telstar had one. Both teams made four and five substitutions respectively.
The result sends AZ into the final of the KNVB Beker, where they will have the chance to lift the trophy. For Telstar, the semi-final defeat ends a strong run in the competition. The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a 2-1 AZ win was accurate, though the nature of the goals – two own goals in quick succession – was not something the model could have anticipated. Telstar will feel they were competitive on the balance of play, but the defensive mistakes proved decisive.
