Where the market is wrong on Deportivo Cuenca v Mushuc Runa SC
Deportivo Cuenca meet Mushuc Runa SC in the Liga Pro regular season - 26 at Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 48%. Attacking output favors Mushuc Runa SC on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 27%, over 2.5 goals around 20%. Draw no bet leans Mushuc Runa SC at 57%; double chance reads Deportivo Cuenca or draw 62%, Mushuc Runa SC or draw 72%.
Deportivo Cuenca arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Mushuc Runa SC, L 0-2 @ Orense SC, L 1-2 v Manta FC, L 0-1 @ Independiente del Valle.
Mushuc Runa SC are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Deportivo Cuenca, D 0-0 v Barcelona SC, W 3-0 @ Tecnico Universitario, W 2-1 @ Manta FC.
Deportivo Cuenca hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Deportivo Cuenca 0-0 Mushuc Runa SC.
The market prices DEP at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Mushuc Runa SC: a 6.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
