Macara v Guayaquil City FC

Macara meet Guayaquil City FC in the Liga Pro regular season - 23 at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. The model makes Macara the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% MAC, 33% draw, 29% GUA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1592 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Macara, 63% against 50%. Attacking output favors Macara on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 28%. Draw no bet leans Macara at 57%; double chance reads Macara or draw 71%, Guayaquil City FC or draw 62%.

Macara arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Gualaceo SC, W 4-1 @ Aucas, W 3-0 v Deportivo Cuenca, L 1-2 @ Delfin SC.

Guayaquil City FC are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Universidad Catolica, D 1-1 @ Leones del Norte, W 1-0 v Manta FC, D 1-1 @ Barcelona SC.

The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Guayaquil City FC 2-1 Macara.

The market prices MAC at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Guayaquil City FC: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.