Leones del Norte overturned a first-half deficit to win 3-1 away to Libertad in the Liga Pro regular season, a result driven by a dominant second half and a 40% pre-match probability that made them the Lemeister model's narrow favourite. The data shows a game decided by Leones del Norte's control of the ball and relentless shot volume, while Libertad's task became near impossible after a red card for Jackson Rodríguez in the 32nd minute.
V. Branda opened the scoring for the home side in the 27th minute, E. Patta providing the assist, a rare bright moment against the run of play. At that stage Libertad held a lead that would not last until the interval. The sending-off of Jackson Rodríguez for two yellow cards in the 32nd minute forced Libertad into a defensive rearguard for the final hour. On the stroke of half-time, Leones del Norte turned the match. J. Anangono converted a penalty to level the scores, then added a second in the 45th minute from a D. Pazmino assist, giving the visitors a 2-1 lead at the break.
Leones del Norte's statistical control was overwhelming. They had 60% ball possession and completed 351 of 415 passes at an 85% accuracy, compared to Libertad's 218 of 281 at 78%. The shot count was 24-6 in favour of the visitors, with 9 efforts on target against Libertad's 2. Their expected goals output was not recorded, but the volume of attempts, 15 from inside the box and 9 from outside, suggests consistent pressure. Libertad's goalkeeper made six saves to keep the deficit manageable, while the Leones del Norte keeper faced only one shot on target. The disparity in corners, 7-2 to the visitors, further illustrates the territorial imbalance.
The match rating data underlines the key contributors. Darío Pazmiño of Leones del Norte earned the highest rating of 8.0 after scoring the third goal in the 73rd minute, assisted by Mauro Luque, who also rated 7.3. Juan Anangonó, scorer of two first-half goals, was rated 7.7, reflecting his decisive impact from the penalty spot and open play within a single minute. Brian Kreiman (7.5) and Leonel Nazareno (7.3) provided solid performances in midfield and defence respectively, while David Cabezas of Libertad was the only home player to feature in the top ratings with a 7.2, likely for his work in a rearguard action. Libertad's discipline was costly: they received four yellow cards and one red to Leones del Norte's two yellows, and committed 16 fouls to 10, a pattern that forced them into a defensive posture for 58 minutes with ten men.
The result leaves Leones del Norte three points richer from a game the Lemeister model had projected as a narrow away win, giving them a crucial victory in the mid-table battle. For Libertad, playing over an hour with ten men against such territorial and shooting superiority proved impossible, and they will need to address their discipline ahead of the run-in. The data suggests that even before the red card, Leones del Norte were creating the superior chances, and once they had the numerical advantage, the contest became one-sided. Libertad's solitary shot on target and 40% possession highlight how effectively the visitors controlled the tempo and territory, making their comeback almost inevitable after the early setback. With the season advancing, Leones del Norte will take confidence from this comprehensive performance, while Libertad must regroup quickly to avoid further damage in their relegation fight.
