Wollongong Wolves v Blacktown City

Wollongong Wolves meet Blacktown City in the New South Wales NPL regular season - 25 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. The model makes Wollongong Wolves the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% WOL, 31% draw, 34% BLA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 45%. Attacking output favors Blacktown City on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Wollongong Wolves at 51%; double chance reads Wollongong Wolves or draw 66%, Blacktown City or draw 65%.

Wollongong Wolves arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Blacktown City, L 2-3 v SD Raiders, L 2-3 @ Sydney Olympic, D 3-3 v St George City FA.

Blacktown City are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Wollongong Wolves, W 3-0 v St George City FA, W 3-1 @ SD Raiders, D 0-0 v Sydney United.

Blacktown City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Wollongong Wolves 0-2 Blacktown City.

The market prices WOL at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.