Where the market is wrong on SalPa v PKKU
SalPa meet PKKU in the Ykkönen group stage at Salon urheilupuisto, Salo. The model makes SalPa the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% SAL, 28% draw, 35% PKK.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 60%. Attacking output favors SalPa on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 74%, over 2.5 goals around 76%. Draw no bet leans SalPa at 51%; double chance reads SalPa or draw 65%, PKKU or draw 63%.
SalPa arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v PKKU, W 2-1 @ Inter Turku II, W 1-0 @ Tampere United, D 2-2 v VJS.
PKKU are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ SalPa, L 1-3 v VJS, D 1-1 v OLS, W 2-1 v FC jazz.
PKKU hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: SalPa 0-1 PKKU.
The market prices SAL at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on PKKU: a 11.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
