Where the market is wrong on FC jazz v TPV
FC jazz meet TPV in the Ykkönen group stage at Porin Stadion, Pori. The model makes FC jazz the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% FC , 30% draw, 33% TPV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 35%. Attacking output favors FC jazz on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans FC jazz at 53%; double chance reads FC jazz or draw 67%, TPV or draw 63%.
FC jazz arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v TPV, W 3-1 @ JJK, L 1-2 @ PKKU, L 0-1 v KPV-j.
TPV are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ FC jazz, W 3-1 v KuPS Akatemia, W 3-1 @ KPV-j, W 1-0 v JJK.
FC jazz hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC jazz 4-0 TPV.
The market prices FC at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
