Ehime FC defeated Nara Club 3-2 at Ningineer Stadium, a result the Lemeister model had rated as a 40 per cent probability with the home side as marginal favourites. The match was decided by Ehime FC's clinical first-half finishing and an early second-half strike that gave them a three-goal lead, before Nara Club fought back with two goals of their own.
S. Hino opened the scoring in the 18th minute, finishing after an assist by K. Miyamoto. That breakthrough was the product of Ehime FC's early control in the contest. Just past the half-hour mark, Y. Taguchi doubled the lead from open play without an assist, putting the home side firmly in command at the interval.
The game appeared to be settled just past the hour mark when K. Miyamoto scored in the 53rd minute, this time assisted by T. Kuroishi, to make it 3-0. However, Nara Club responded almost immediately. T. Ishii pulled one back in the 58th minute with an assist from M. Nakayama. The visitors were handed a route back into the match when they were awarded a penalty in the 72nd minute. S. Tamura converted from the spot to cut the deficit to a single goal, setting up a tense final period. Neither side could find a further goal, and Ehime FC held on for the victory.
The flow of the match is reflected in how the goals were distributed across the halves. Ehime FC did their damage in the first 53 minutes, scoring three times, while Nara Club's response came in a 14-minute second-half spell. Defensive discipline was a factor; Nara Club's Y. Kunitake was booked in the 46th minute for a yellow card, which may have constrained the visitors' approach in the second period.
While the full statistical breakdown for the match is not available, the sequence of goals tells a clear story. Ehime FC's early efficiency in front of goal was decisive. Their three goals came from open play and were shared among three different scorers, with two assists recorded. Nara Club's response, including a penalty, demonstrated resilience but ultimately fell short. The home side made five substitutions and the away side also made five, but the identity of those substitutes is not recorded.
The standout individual performers, by virtue of their direct contributions to the scoreline, were Ehime FC's S. Hino, Y. Taguchi, and K. Miyamoto, with the latter also providing an assist. For Nara Club, T. Ishii and S. Tamura got the goals, while M. Nakayama and T. Kuroishi were credited with assists for their respective teams.
The Lemeister model's pre-match projection had Ehime FC as favourites with a 40 per cent win probability, and a draw and away win both rated at 30 per cent. The actual outcome, a 3-2 home victory, aligns with that narrow favouritism. For Ehime FC, this result continues their regular-season campaign with a vital three points, moving them up the J2/J3 League table. Nara Club will be left to rue a slow start that gave them too much ground to recover from, despite a spirited second-half showing. The match will be remembered for its early goal rush and the late tension that the penalty introduced.
