Xorazm v Surkhon

Xorazm meet Surkhon in the Super League regular season - 14 at Xorazm Stadium, undefined. The model makes Surkhon the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 32% XOR, 31% draw, 37% SUR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Surkhon, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Surkhon on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Surkhon at 54%; double chance reads Xorazm or draw 63%, Surkhon or draw 68%.

Xorazm arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 1 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Pakhtakor, L 0-2 @ Sogdiana, L 0-3 v Andijan, D 0-0 @ Qizilqum.

Surkhon are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Dinamo Samarqand, W 2-1 @ Andijan, D 1-1 v Pakhtakor, L 2-5 @ Sogdiana.

The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Xorazm 2-2 Surkhon.

The market prices XOR at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Surkhon: a 11.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.