Where the market is wrong on Ogre United v Super Nova
Ogre United meet Super Nova in the Virsliga regular season - 31.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Super Nova, 43% against 33%. Attacking output favors Ogre United on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Ogre United arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Super Nova, L 0-1 @ Auda, D 2-2 v FK Liepaja, L 1-2 @ Tukums.
Super Nova are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Ogre United, L 0-1 v Riga, W 1-0 v Tukums, W 1-0 @ FS Jelgava.
Super Nova hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ogre United 1-0 Super Nova.
The market prices OGR at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
