North Texas v Los Angeles FC II

North Texas meet Los Angeles FC II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at Choctaw Stadium, undefined. The model makes North Texas the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% NOR, 29% draw, 34% LOS.

The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors North Texas on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 71%. Draw no bet leans North Texas at 53%; double chance reads North Texas or draw 66%, Los Angeles FC II or draw 62%.

North Texas arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ The Town, L 0-1 @ Colorado Rapids II, W 3-0 v St. Louis City II, D 1-1 @ Vancouver Whitecaps II.

Los Angeles FC II are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Ventura County, D 0-0 v Portland Timbers II, D 2-2 v Real Monarchs, W 3-1 v Houston Dynamo FC II.

North Texas hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Los Angeles FC II 2-4 North Texas.

The market prices NOR at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.