Where the market is wrong on Cheonan City v Yongin City
Cheonan City meet Yongin City in the K League 2 regular season - 20 at Cheonan Stadium, Cheonan. The model makes Cheonan City the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% CHE, 31% draw, 32% YON.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 38%. Attacking output favors Cheonan City on expected goals, 1.2 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Cheonan City at 54%; double chance reads Cheonan City or draw 68%, Yongin City or draw 63%.
Cheonan City arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 @ Seoul E-Land FC, L 0-1 @ Cheongju, W 2-1 v Mokpo City, L 0-1 v Gimhae City.
Yongin City are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Gimpo Citizen, L 0-3 v Hwaseong, L 0-2 v Dangjin Citizen, D 1-1 v Cheongju.
Cheonan City hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Yongin City 2-2 Cheonan City.
The market prices CHE at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
