Where the market is wrong on Meshakhte v Spaeri
Meshakhte meet Spaeri in the Erovnuli Liga regular season - 24 at Agrano Vachadze Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Spaeri, 33% against 20%. Attacking output favors Spaeri on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Meshakhte arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Spaeri, W 2-0 @ Torpedo Kutaisi, L 0-1 v Dinamo Batumi, L 1-3 @ Dila.
Spaeri are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 7 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Meshakhte, L 0-3 @ Dinamo Batumi, L 3-4 v Samgurali, D 1-1 @ Gagra.
Spaeri hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Meshakhte 2-2 Spaeri.
The market prices MES at 24% implied. Our number sits apart on Meshakhte: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
