KA Akureyri v Thor Akureyri

KA Akureyri meet Thor Akureyri in the Úrvalsdeild regular season - 16. The model makes KA Akureyri the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 44% KA , 27% draw, 29% THO.

The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 33%. Attacking output favors KA Akureyri on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans KA Akureyri at 61%; double chance reads KA Akureyri or draw 71%, Thor Akureyri or draw 56%.

KA Akureyri arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Thor Akureyri, D 2-2 @ IBV Vestmannaeyjar, W 3-2 v IA Akranes, L 2-3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik.

Thor Akureyri are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ KA Akureyri, W 2-1 v Vikingur Reykjavik, L 1-6 @ Fram Reykjavik, D 3-3 v KR Reykjavik.

KA Akureyri hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Thor Akureyri 0-1 KA Akureyri.

The market prices KA at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Thor Akureyri: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.