Breidablik edged IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1-0 in the Úrvalsdeild regular season round 16, a result that fell short of the margin the Lemeister model had anticipated. The model made Breidablik the favourite with a 49 per cent win probability and projected a 3-1 home victory, but the actual match was decided by a single goal six minutes into the second half. The narrow scoreline reflected a contest in which discipline and game management were more decisive than attacking fluency.
The only goal arrived in the 51st minute, scored by A. Thorsteinsson for Breidablik. It was a normal goal and no assist was recorded, so the exact method of creation is not available from the data. The goal separated the sides for the remainder of the match, and IBV Vestmannaeyjar were unable to find an equaliser despite having the entire second half to respond. The timing of the goal, early in the second period, gave the away side ample time to force a reply, but they could not do so.
The statistical picture is dominated by disciplinary events rather than attacking volume. Six yellow cards were shown, all to Breidablik players. The first booking came in the 29th minute for I. Arnason, followed by K. Steindorsson in the 59th minute. A. Orrason was booked in the 88th minute, O. Skulason in the 89th minute, and then H. Karlsson and D. Fjeldsted both received yellow cards in stoppage time, the 92nd minute. That flurry of late bookings suggests a team that was defending a narrow lead under mounting pressure, forced to disrupt play as IBV Vestmannaeyjar pushed for an equaliser. The fact that all six cards were shown to the home side is a statistical outlier, indicating a match in which Breidablik's defensive resistance was either aggressive or desperate.
No shots, shots on target, expected goals, possession or passing statistics are provided in the data, which limits the depth of the tactical analysis. Without these figures, it is not possible to assess which team created the better chances or controlled the territory. The match rating data is also absent, so individual performance evaluation beyond the goal scorer is unavailable. The substitute counts show four changes for Breidablik and five for IBV Vestmannaeyjar, suggesting both benches were used in an attempt to influence the game, but the names and specific impact of those substitutions are not recorded.
The result leaves Breidablik with three points from a home fixture that the Lemeister model had expected them to win by a wider margin. The projected 3-1 scoreline was not matched by the actual attacking output, but the clean sheet will be a positive takeaway for the home defence, despite the heavy yellow-card count. For IBV Vestmannaeyjar, a narrow away defeat against the pre-match favourite is a result that keeps them in touch in the standings but fails to close the gap. The lack of an away goal is a missed opportunity, and the inability to capitalise on Breidablik's indiscipline will be a source of frustration. The model's pre-match forecast of a home win was correct, but the margin was much finer than the numbers had suggested. Breidablik's ability to manage the game and hold on to a slender lead, even with six bookings, proved decisive.
