Where the market is wrong on Denver Summit W v Bay FC W
Denver Summit W meet Bay FC W in the NWSL Women group stage at Centennial Stadium, Commerce City.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Denver Summit W, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Denver Summit W on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
Denver Summit W arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 14 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Bay FC W, D 3-3 @ Angel City W, W 3-0 v NJ/NY Gotham FC W, W 6-1 v Chicago Red Stars W.
Bay FC W are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Denver Summit W, L 0-2 @ Seattle Reign FC W, L 1-2 v Kansas City W, L 0-1 @ Washington Spirit W.
Bay FC W hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Denver Summit W 2-2 Bay FC W.
The market prices DEN at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Bay FC W: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
