Where the market is wrong on D. La Serena v Cobresal
D. La Serena meet Cobresal in the Primera División regular season - 20 at Estadio La Portada, La Serena.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans D. La Serena, 38% against 25%. Attacking output favors D. La Serena on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans D. La Serena at 55%; double chance reads D. La Serena or draw 68%, Cobresal or draw 61%.
D. La Serena arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Cobresal, W 2-0 @ Universidad de Concepcion, D 1-1 @ Coquimbo Unido, L 1-2 v O'Higgins.
Cobresal are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 10 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ D. La Serena, L 0-2 v Concepción, L 0-2 @ U. Catolica, W 4-0 v Union La Calera.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: D. La Serena 3-3 Cobresal.
The market prices D. at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Cobresal: a 12.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
