Where the market is wrong on Hammarby Talang v Arlanda
Hammarby Talang meet Arlanda in the Ettan - Norra norra - 15 at Hammarby IP, Stockholm. The model makes Hammarby Talang the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% HAM, 29% draw, 35% ARL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1624 to 1637, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 67% against 71%. Attacking output favors Hammarby Talang on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans Hammarby Talang at 51%; double chance reads Hammarby Talang or draw 65%, Arlanda or draw 64%.
Hammarby Talang arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 15 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 @ FBK Karlstad, D 1-1 v Järfälla, W 2-0 @ Karlberg, W 4-0 @ Gefle IF.
Arlanda are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 6-1 v Haninge, W 1-0 v IF Karlstad, W 2-0 @ Järfälla, W 1-0 v Stocksund.
The market prices HAM at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Arlanda: a 16.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
