Sollentuna took an early lead but were comprehensively beaten 4-1 by AFC Eskilstuna at Sollentunavallen, a result that the Lemeister model had tilted in the visitors' favour, giving them a 40 per cent win probability against a 30 per cent chance for the hosts. The model projected a 2-1 away win, which underestimated the breadth of the final margin, but correctly identified AFC Eskilstuna as the stronger side.
The match began with a goal for the home side in the 15th minute. E. Lundell found the net to put Sollentuna ahead, but the lead lasted only four minutes. A. Flodkvist equalised for AFC Eskilstuna in the 19th minute, restoring parity. The visitors then took control before half-time, with S. Skoldqvist scoring in the 40th minute to give them a 2-1 advantage at the interval. All three first-half goals were normal goals without an assist recorded, reflecting a period of open play where neither defence dominated.
AFC Eskilstuna extended their lead in the second half. I. Cherif Fofana made it 3-1 in the 83rd minute, and E. Chabo added a fourth in the 88th minute to seal a dominant away victory. The scoring was efficient: four goals from four different scorers, all without an assist recorded. Sollentuna's inability to add to Lundell's opener after the 15th minute was the central failing, as the home side could not sustain any attacking momentum against a well-organised visiting defence.
The discipline of the away side was tested, with I. Ahmed receiving a yellow card in the 10th minute and T. Parallangaj following suit just before the break in the 45th minute. These two bookings were the only cards in the match, and they did not curtail AFC Eskilstuna's attacking intent. The early caution for Ahmed came just five minutes before Lundell's goal, suggesting Sollentuna initially sensed an opportunity to press a booked player, but the visitors responded with composure.
In the absence of detailed possession, passing, or shot data, the narrative is defined by the scoreline and the timing of the goals. Sollentuna's early promise was undone by a swift response and a sustained period of pressure from the visitors. The home side failed to build on Lundell's opener, conceding two goals in the first half and two more after the interval. AFC Eskilstuna's four goals came over a 69-minute span, demonstrating consistent attacking threat rather than a single burst of form. Each of the four scorers contributed equally, spreading the responsibility across the team and making it difficult for Sollentuna to focus defensive attention on one player.
The defeat leaves Sollentuna with work to do in the Ettan - Norra table, as they failed to protect a home lead against a side the Lemeister model rated as favourites. AFC Eskilstuna's convincing win strengthens their position in the upper half of the division, and the clean attacking performance bodes well for their upcoming matches. The model's pre-match projection of a 2-1 away win proved conservative given the eventual 4-1 margin, but the 40 per cent away win probability accurately reflected the visitors' superiority. Sollentuna will need to address their defensive organisation after conceding four times at home, while AFC Eskilstuna can take confidence from a comprehensive road victory that featured contributions from multiple players across both halves.
