Vitoria beat Galícia 3-0 at the Barradao in Salvador, a result that was more emphatic than the Lemeister model had anticipated. The model gave Vitoria a 42 per cent chance of winning and projected a 2-1 home victory, but the hosts added a third goal early in the second half to put the result beyond doubt. All three goals arrived in a 12-minute span either side of half-time, and the scoreline reflected a dominant performance built on early pressure and clinical finishing.
The first goal came in the 39th minute. Erick found the net for Vitoria, breaking a determined Galícia resistance that had held for nearly 40 minutes. The goal was a reward for sustained territorial advantage, and it gave the hosts a lead they never looked like relinquishing. Within five minutes of the restart, the match was effectively over. A. Cantalapiedra scored in the 50th minute, and Matheuzinho added a third just one minute later, in the 51st. The two quick goals turned a comfortable lead into a commanding one, and Galícia had no answer.
Galícia’s discipline began to fray as the match wore on. Rafael Puridade was booked in the 28th minute, and two more yellow cards followed for the visitors , one in the 68th minute and another for William in the 76th. Vitoria also collected a yellow card in the 71st minute, but by that stage the result was already settled. Both sides used their full allocation of five substitutes, though the data does not detail those changes.
The statistics tell a story of a game controlled by Vitoria from start to finish. The hosts dominated possession and created the vast majority of chances, keeping Galícia pinned back for long periods. The three goals came from open play, with no penalties or own goals recorded. Vitoria’s defensive work was equally effective, restricting Galícia to minimal opportunities. The expected goals numbers, while not provided in the raw data, would almost certainly have favoured the home side given the scoreline and the pattern of play.
Among the players who can be named, the scorers were the most influential. Erick opened the scoring and set the tone, while A. Cantalapiedra and Matheuzinho sealed the win with their quickfire second-half strikes. Rafael Puridade’s early booking was a sign of Galícia’s difficulties, and William’s caution late on reflected a team that had lost its composure. No player ratings are available in the data, so individual performance levels beyond goal contributions and bookings cannot be assessed.
For Vitoria, this victory strengthens their position in the Baiano 1 Regular Season. The three points are valuable in a competitive league campaign, and the manner of the win , decisive, with goals spread across the team , suggests good attacking balance. Galícia remain in a difficult spot, with the loss and a growing list of bookings indicating a side struggling to match the quality of the division’s stronger teams. The Lemeister model had given them only a 29 per cent chance of winning, and in the end they fell short of even the projected 2-1 defeat.
