Juazeirense strengthened their position in the Baiano 1 regular season with a 3-1 victory over Porto BA at Estadio Municipal Agnaldo Bento dos Santos, a result that was largely aligned with the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The model had given the visitors a 40% win probability, making them the favoured side, and their projected 1-0 away victory was ultimately surpassed by a more emphatic margin after a dominant second-half performance.
Porto BA took an unlikely lead in the 16th minute, but it came through a costly error from their own player. Bruno Sena turned the ball into his own net, handing the home side an advantage they had not earned through sustained attacking play. That own goal was the only scoring incident of the first half, yet the underlying data suggested it was a fragile lead. Juazeirense had already collected a yellow card in the 12th minute for a challenge, but they began to assert themselves as the half wore on, pressing for an equaliser that would come shortly after the restart. The home side's early good fortune masked their lack of control, and the statistical picture, while incomplete due to the absence of shot and possession data in the supplied facts, indicated that Porto BA were struggling to generate attacking momentum.
The second half was a one-sided affair that decisively swung the contest. Marlon Almeida drew Juazeirense level in the 53rd minute with a normal goal, ending Porto BA's resistance and restoring parity. Six minutes later, Ze Romario put the visitors ahead with another normal goal, and any hope of a Porto BA fightback was extinguished when Anderson added a third in the 76th minute. All three goals were scored from open play, with no assists recorded in the data, indicating that individual efforts or defensive lapses were decisive. The rapid sequence of goals in the second half demonstrated Juazeirense's clinical edge, as they required only 23 minutes to turn a one-goal deficit into a two-goal lead.
The card count provided further insight into the match's complexion. Juazeirense received two yellow cards in the first half, in the 12th and 49th minutes, and two more in the second half, in the 82nd and 83rd minutes, but their discipline did not waver despite the physical contest. Porto BA picked up two yellow cards of their own, in the 72nd and 83rd minutes, reflecting their frustration as the game slipped away. The home side's bookings came at a time when they were chasing the match, and their inability to mount a sustained challenge was evident in their lack of second-half goals.
Without match ratings available in the data, it is impossible to identify the standout individual performers by those metrics. However, the goal scorers, Marlon Almeida, Ze Romario, and Anderson, were clearly decisive for Juazeirense, as each contributed a crucial strike that shifted the momentum. Bruno Sena's own goal was the defining negative moment for Porto BA, as it gave them an undeserved lead that they could not protect. The home side made six substitutions to Juazeirense's five, but none altered the course of the match, and the visitors' greater depth and efficiency proved decisive.
The result leaves Porto BA with work to do in the Baiano 1 regular season, as they were unable to capitalise on an early gift and have now suffered a heavy defeat that exposes their defensive vulnerabilities. Juazeirense, meanwhile, will be encouraged by their clinical second-half display, which turned a potential setback into a comfortable win and reaffirms their status as a competitive side in the league. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 away win, so the actual three-goal margin slightly exceeded expectations, but the overall outcome was consistent with the visitors being the favoured side and controlling the match after the interval.
