Abha won 2-1 away at Al Ula, a result that the Lemeister model had given only a 30 per cent probability, having installed the home side as favourites with a 40 per cent win chance and projecting a 2-1 home victory. The data tells a story of Abha's clinical efficiency in the decisive moments, converting two of their opportunities while limiting the damage from Al Ula's expected dominance in other phases.
The scoring began in the 26th minute when S. Sow converted a penalty to give Abha the lead. Al Ula responded swiftly, with M. Al Majhad finding the net in the 34th minute to level the score at 1-1, both goals coming without an assist. The match remained balanced approaching the hour mark. Abha regained the lead in the 61st minute when Muralha scored, with M. Al Mutairi providing the assist, a goal that proved decisive. The second half carried a rising disciplinary toll. Abha's Agi received a yellow card in the 16th minute, followed by Y. Y. Ibrahim in the 47th. Al Ula's H. Al Shamrani was booked in the 54th minute, and the home side finished with ten men after A. Adam received a red card in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
The statistical picture, derived from the available figures, shows the match was tighter than the scoreline might suggest. Al Ula had 51 per cent possession against Abha's 49, reflecting an even territorial contest. In total shots, Abha held a narrow 12-10 advantage, but their clinical edge is exposed when examining shots on target. Abha registered seven efforts on target, while Al Ula managed only three. The expected goals figure for Abha was 1.8 against Al Ula's 1.6, suggesting that Al Ula created nearly as much in terms of quality chances, but did not convert them. Abha's three shots on target were a more accurate reflection of their finishing. From open play, Abha had six shots to Al Ula's four, further confirming the visitors' efficiency in the final third. In dead-ball situations, Al Ula had six attempts to Abha's five, but none found the target.
Passing accuracy was almost identical. Al Ula completed 83 per cent of their passes; Abha 82 per cent. The home side accumulated seven corners to Abha's five, although they could not turn any into a goal. Discipline favoured Abha overall, with the away side receiving two yellow cards to Al Ula's one yellow and one red.
The key performers for the winners were S. Sow and Muralha, the scorers, while M. Al Mutairi contributed the creative assist. For Al Ula, M. Al Majhad was the lone scorer. The defensive unit of Abha, while not individually highlighted in the data, held firm in the face of 10 Al Ula shots, conceding only once. For Al Ula, A. Adam's red card late in stoppage time compounded the defeat.
This result strengthens Abha's position in the Division 1 table, securing an important away victory that moves them closer to the upper half. For Al Ula, it is a damaging setback at home, particularly after the Lemeister model had rated them as favourites. They remain in mid-table but will need to address their conversion rate and discipline if they are to challenge for a higher finish in the remaining rounds.
