Where the market is wrong on Raelingen v Lillehammer
Raelingen meet Lillehammer in the 3. Division - Girone 6 regular season - 13. The model makes Lillehammer the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 30% RAE, 26% draw, 45% LIL.
Lillehammer rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1518. Recent form leans Lillehammer, 73% against 50%. Attacking output favors Lillehammer on expected goals, 3.2 to 2.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 90%, over 2.5 goals around 96%. Draw no bet leans Lillehammer at 60%; double chance reads Raelingen or draw 55%, Lillehammer or draw 70%.
Raelingen arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v Lillehammer, L 1-3 @ Oppsal, W 3-1 v Bjørkelangen, L 2-7 @ Råde.
Lillehammer are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 21 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 @ Raelingen, D 2-2 v Elverum, W 5-3 @ Lyn II, W 2-1 @ Bjørkelangen.
The market prices RAE at 13% implied. Our number sits apart on Raelingen: a 17.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output