Birmingham Legion v New Mexico United

Birmingham Legion meet New Mexico United in the USL Championship group stage at Protective Stadium, undefined. The model makes New Mexico United the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 33% BIR, 31% draw, 36% NEW.

New Mexico United rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1601 to 1456. Recent form leans New Mexico United, 63% against 47%. Attacking output favors New Mexico United on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 50%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans New Mexico United at 53%; double chance reads Birmingham Legion or draw 64%, New Mexico United or draw 67%.

Birmingham Legion arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v FC Tulsa, D 1-1 @ Miami FC, L 1-2 v Detroit City, D 1-1 v Loudoun United.

New Mexico United are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Lexington, W 2-0 @ El Paso Locomotive, W 2-1 v Oakland Roots, D 3-3 v Atlante FC.

Birmingham Legion hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: New Mexico United 1-1 Birmingham Legion.

The market prices BIR at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.