Treaty United v Athlone Town

Treaty United meet Athlone Town in the First Division regular season - 24 at Markets Field, Limerick. The model makes Treaty United the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% TRE, 33% draw, 33% ATH.

The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 38%. Attacking output favors Treaty United on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Treaty United at 51%; double chance reads Treaty United or draw 67%, Athlone Town or draw 66%.

Treaty United arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Athlone Town, L 1-2 v UCD, W 1-0 @ Finn Harps, W 2-1 v Kerry.

Athlone Town are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Treaty United, W 3-0 v Midleton, W 2-0 v Cobh Ramblers, L 0-1 @ Bray Wanderers.

Treaty United hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Treaty United 2-1 Athlone Town.

The market prices TRE at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.