Treaty United took the points at Finn Park with a 1-0 victory that was tighter than the pre-match numbers suggested. The Lemeister model had given the visitors a 40 per cent chance of winning, making them slight favourites, and the single goal proved enough. The home side, given a 28 per cent chance by the model, will feel the result was harsh given their territorial dominance.
The decisive moment arrived in the 35th minute. C. Conroy scored a normal goal for Treaty United, with no assist recorded. That strike separated the sides through a contest that remained tight and increasingly ill-tempered. It was the only moment of the match that could be described as clinical, as both sides struggled to convert their other opportunities into goals.
The match was not a statistical rout by any measure. Finn Harps had the majority of possession, holding 58 per cent to Treaty United's 42. They also attempted 12 shots to the visitors' 10. However, the hosts managed only three shots on target from those attempts, while Treaty United put four of their 10 efforts on goal. The expected goals figures tell a similar story: Finn Harps generated 1.2 xG, Treaty United 1.0. The visitors, though, were more efficient with their chances, converting one when it mattered. The difference in shot accuracy was modest but decisive: the away side hit the target with 40 per cent of their attempts, while Finn Harps managed only 25 per cent.
The passing numbers underline the pattern. Finn Harps completed 431 passes at a rate of 82 per cent, while Treaty United made 313 passes with 76 per cent accuracy. The home side's greater share of the ball did not translate into the clear-cut chances needed to breach the Treaty United defence. Their 12 shots from 58 per cent possession suggests a side that could work the ball into promising areas but lacked a cutting edge in the final third. Treaty United, by contrast, were content to absorb pressure and strike on the counter.
Discipline became a significant factor in the latter stages. The game saw six cards in total. Finn Harps received four yellows and a red. B. Bosakani was booked on 81 minutes, and S. Bradley received a yellow on 83 and then a red in the 93rd minute. Treaty United collected one yellow card, with D. Nwankwo cautioned on 82 minutes. The late red card for Bradley meant Finn Harps finished the match with 10 men, though the goal had already been conceded. The timing of the cards, all after the 80th minute, suggests a match that grew increasingly fractious as the home side pushed for an equaliser without success.
For Finn Harps, this was a missed opportunity to climb the First Division table. Their 58 per cent possession and 12 shots suggest a performance that was dominant in patches but ultimately lacked the final ball or finish needed. The expected goals figure of 1.2 indicates they created enough to have scored at least once, but the conversion rate let them down. Treaty United, meanwhile, will be satisfied with a disciplined away performance that yielded three points without them needing to dominate the ball. Conroy's goal proved the difference, and the visitors' defence held firm under pressure. The result keeps Treaty United in touch with the upper half of the table, while Finn Harps will reflect on a defeat that the underlying numbers suggest was not entirely deserved but was punishing nonetheless. With the season approaching its final third, such fine margins could prove decisive in the battle for promotion and survival.
