St Patrick's Athl. v Derry City

St Patrick's Athl. meet Derry City in the Premier Division regular season - 26 at Richmond Park, Dublin. The model makes St Patrick's Athl. the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% ST , 31% draw, 30% DER.

The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans St Patrick's Athl., 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors St Patrick's Athl. on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans St Patrick's Athl. at 56%; double chance reads St Patrick's Athl. or draw 70%, Derry City or draw 61%.

St Patrick's Athl. arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Dundalk, W 2-1 v Wexford, L 2-4 @ Doncaster, D 1-1 @ Waterford.

Derry City are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ HNK Rijeka, W 3-0 v Tolka Rovers, L 1-2 v CSKA Sofia, L 2-3 @ CSKA Sofia.

Derry City hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..

The market prices ST at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Derry City: a 10.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.